Dr. Craig Nitschke

Contact Information

nitschke@interchange.ubc.ca
+1 604 822 3450          +1 604 822 3450     

Project

Assessing the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change; The role of disturbance in increasing the sensitivity of northen ecosystems to climate change

Themes

Sustainable Forest Management, Climate Change, Forest Ecology, Disturbance Ecology, Ecosystem Modelling

Interests

My research interests are centered around the integration of climate change into sustainable forest management planning through an understanding of ecosystem vulnerability. I am focussed on understanding how climate change impacts forest regeneration, succession and natural disturbances. The understanding of ecosystem vulnerability is then used in SFM planning to determine how to allocate forest landscapes into different management zones and then how to manage ecosystems to adapt them to the stressors of natural disturbance and climatic change. A combination of field studies and modelling is used to pursue these research interests. The objective of my research is to integrate climate change into SFM planning so that we can make decisions based on risk, not uncertainty, in order to sustainably management forest ecosystems for multiple ecological services. The underlying logic for my research is best descrbed by the following question : How can we adapt if we do not understand what to adapt?

Title

Integrating climate change into forest planning: a spatial and temporal analysis of landscape vulnerability

Abstract

The achievement of sustainable forest management requires the incorporation of risk and uncertainty into long-term planning. Climatic change is one stressor that will have significant impact on natural disturbances, ecosystems and biodiversity, particularly on landscapes influenced by forest management. Understanding where vulnerabilities lie and when climatic thresholds are reached are important areas of knowledge that must be used to manage the risks associated directly or indirectly with climatic change. The vulnerability of landscapes to natural disturbances, the resilience of ecosystems and distribution of biodiversity are all important components that need to be considered when undertaking forest planning. Modelling the vulnerability of a 145,000 ha landscape in the south-central interior of British Columbia was used as a case study to assess the vulnerability of fire potential, fire regimes, ecosystem resilience and biodiversity to climatic change. The results from the analysis of fire potential identified a 30 % increase in fire season length and a 95 % increase in fire severity by 2085. A statistically significant shift in fire behaviour was also detected by 2070 with crown fires predicted to be more common. Climatic change was also found to significantly increase mean fire size by 2025 and decrease the mean return interval. By 2085, 95 % of the landscape could burn every 50 years or less compared to the 34 % currently classified. Ecosystem resilience was modelled to be affected to varying degrees with a shift in many species to higher elevation and/ or to non-water deficit sites between 2025 and 2085. Six species were predicted to be at extreme risk and four others at high risk. An analysis of bark beetle risk identified 38.7 % of the study area is currently at some degree of risk to attack. An analysis of biodiversity identified 19 indicator species that could be used to monitor management actions with a biodiversity management area that covers 66 % of the landscape. These analyses were used as a foundation to guide forest zoning allocation, using the triad zoning framework, and for developing a “Climate-smart” management paradigm to be used for managing the landscape after allocation.

Research Experience

Postdoctoral Research Associate
Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia
Vancouver, BC, Canada
April, 2008 to Current
Duties:
Research project manager: Role of disturbance in increasing the sensitivity of northern ecosystems to climate change. Organising and supervising PhD students during field work. Conducting vegetation. Woody debris and soil sampling plots in S.W. Yukon; designing and establishing weather and soil moisture monitoring stations in field. Model parameterisation and calibration using empirical field data.
Project Researcher: Assessing alternative forest management strategies under climate change. Modelling of climate change impact on forest regeneration and tree species selection.

Research Scientist
Contractor for Bulkley Valley Centre for Natural Resources Research and Management
April, 2007 to Current
Duties: Assessment of forest ecosystem vulnerability to climate change (model development, field calibration of ecosystem model and forest ecosystem modelling and analysis)

Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Forests and Climate Change
School of Forest and Ecosystem Science, The University of Melbourne
July, 2007 to January, 2008
Duties: Assessing the vulnerability of Victoria’s Mountain Ash forests to climate change (model development, field calibration of ecosystem model and forest ecosystem modelling and analysis)

Postdoctoral Research Fellow
Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia
October, 2006 to April, 2007
Duties: field trip and lecture organisation, forest-climate change extension work (presentations, journal articles and reports), Cumulative Impact Assessment (habitat modelling and assessment of ecological integrity), mentoring of graduate students in research laboratory.

Graduate Research Assistant
Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia
September, 2002 to October, 2006
Project: Integrating climate change into forest planning: a spatial and temporal analysis of landscape vulnerability (PhD Research).
Duties: Design and conduct PhD research that integrated climate change, natural disturbance regimes, conservation of biodiversity, and ecosystem resilience into sustainable forest management planning through risk & vulnerability analyses.
Supervision and mentoring of two undergraduate students.

Research Assistant
Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia
January to March, 2005
Project: Identifying Common Ground for Sustainable Forest Management Criteria and Indicators Initiatives in British Columbia Project.
Duties: Scientific review, inventory and gap analysis of criteria and indicator systems.

Professional Experience

House Advisor and Team Leader
University of British Columbia Housing and Conferences, University of British Columbia
August 2001 to May 2005.
Duties: Event planning, conflict resolution, peer counselling, meeting facilitation

Temporary Silviculture Field Supervisor
Canadian Forest Products, Houston Division, Houston, BC, Canada
April to September 2001 & 2002
Duties: Forest engineering, surveying and harvest planning

Forest Technician and Crew Leader
TDB Forestry Services Ltd. Houston BC, Canada
May – September 1997 & 1998; May 1999 to February 2000
Duties: Forest engineering, surveying and harvest planning

Junior Forest Technician
Ministry of Forests, Morice Forest District, Houston BC, Canada
May to September, 1996
Duties: Silviculture, surveying and forest engineering

Safety Person and Buckerman
Shockwave Contracting, Topley, BC, Canada
March, 1996

Professional Affiliations

University of British Columbia Alumni Association
Canadian Institute of Forestry
Commonwealth Forestry Association
Centre for Applied Conservation and Research
Association of British Columbian Professional Foresters [Forester in Training]

Teaching Experience

Guest lecturer, Environmental Studies Program, Trinity Western University. 4th year Environmental Studies Thesis/ Research Seminar: Forests and Climate Change: Understanding Potential Ecosystem Responses. March 13, 2008.

Teaching Assistant, Department of Forest Sciences, University of British Columbia,
Conservation Biology. January to April 2004-2007.
Duties: instruction in geographic information systems, reserve design, population viability analysis, habitat modelling, and debate facilitation

Guest lecturer, Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia.
Forest Modelling: Climate Change Modelling. November 2005.

Teaching Assistant, Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British
Columbia, Integrated Resources Management II. January to April 2003.
Duties: instruction in the development of sustainable forest management plan and forest landscape-level modelling

Conference Presentations

Triad planning in the context of climate change Short Rotation Forestry: A Solution with a Future Conference, Oxford, Quebec, Canada, March 23-24, 2006.

Organising Chair of Technical Session 063: Crossing Borders: International Perspectives on Interdisciplinary Research at XXII IUFRO World Congress, Brisbane , Australia , August 8-13, 2005 .

Triad zoning and management on a dynamic landscape: conserving biodiversity and timber supply through holistic analysis and risk spreading. Oral Presentation in Session 155: Interactions between science and practice at the XXII IUFRO World Congress, Brisbane , Australia , August 8-13, 2005 .

Monitoring sustainable forest management in the Pacific Rim. Poster Presentation in Session 19: Emerging Issues for Sustainable Forest Management at the XXII IUFRO World Congress, Brisbane , Australia , August 8-13, 2005 .

Impact of climate change on landscape-level fire severity ratings in the North Okanagan , British Columbia , Canada . Poster Presentation at the Bringing Climate into Natural Resource Management Conference, June 28-30, 2005 , Portland , Oregon , USA .

Minimising the risks of climate change for sustainable forest management (Plenary Session, Oral Presentation). Sustainable Forest Management: on the Road to Implementation, Kelowna , British Columbia , Canada , February 23-25, 2005 .

Effectiveness monitoring of biodiversity in dynamic environments: Is it possible? (Plenary Session, Oral Presentation). International Conference: Monitoring the Effectiveness of Biological Conservation, Richmond , British Columbia , Canada , November 2-4, 2004

Decision support system for implementing sustainable forest management under climate change (Parallel Session, Oral Presentation). The 6th International Symposium on Plant Responses to Air Pollution and Global Changes, Tsukuba City , Ibaraki , Japan , October 19-22, 2004

Natural disturbance and forest management under climate change: implications for biodiversity and timber supply within a Triad zoning framework (Poster presentation). CIF/IFC and SAF Joint AGM and Convention, Edmonton , Alberta , Canada , October 2-6, 2004

Assessing tradeoffs between economic and environmental values within a Triad zoning framework (General and Special Poster Presentation). XII World Forestry Congress, Quebec City , Quebec , Canada , September 21-28, 2003

Awards, Grants and Scholarships

Principical Investigator: Regeneration Vulnerability Assessment for Dominant Tree Species throughout the Central Interior of British Columbia. 2008-2010. Government of British Columbia Future Forest Ecosystem Initiative Project, 2 years and $40,000 per year. Organisation: Bulkley Valley Centre for Natural Resources Research and Management. Started June 2008.

 Principical Investigator: Assessing ecosystem vulnerability to climate change from the tree- to stand- to landscape-level. 2007- 2010. Government of British Columbia Forest Sciences Program Project, 3 years and $79,920 per year. Organisation: Bulkley Valley Centre for Natural Resources Research and Management. Started April 2007.Project ID 2007-2008: Y081200; Project ID 2008-2009: Y092200 

 Primary Author of Grant Application and Project Researcher:  Role of disturbance in increasing the sensitivity of northern ecosystems to climate change. 2008-2010. Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Strategic Project Grants Supplemental Competition Grant, 2 years: $99,020 for year 1 and $98,400 for year 2. Organisation: University of British Columbia. Principal Investigator: Dr. John Innes. 

 Project Collaborator:  Assessing alternative forest management strategies under climate change. 2008-2010. Government of British Columbia Forest Sciences Program Project, 2 years and $60,480. Organisation: University of British Columbia. Principal Investigators: Dr. Harry Nelson and Dr. Anne-Helene Mathey.Project ID 2008-2009: Y091110 

 Organising CHair: Technical Session 063: Crossing Borders: International Perspectives on Interdisciplinary Research; XXII IUFRO World Congress, Brisbane, Australia, August 8-13, 2005. $13,000 funding from Natural Resources Canada and the Sustainable Forest Management Network. TimberWest Forest Limited Fellowship in Forest Sciences, 2006 ($2500)
Braham G. Griffith Memorial Scholarship in Forest Resources Management, 2006 ($800)
Namkoong Family Fellowship in Forest Sciences, 2005 ($9600)
J. Harry Smith Scholarship in Forest Resources Management, 2005 ($4800)
VanDusen Graduate Fellowship in Forestry, 2003 & 2005 ($4000)
Natural Resources Canada IUFRO World Congress Grant, 2005 ($5000)
Sustainable Forest Management Network IUFRO World Congress Grant, 2005 ($8000)
Donald S. McPhee Fellowship in Forestry, 2004 ($600)
Weldwood of Canada Limited H Richard Whittall Scholarship, 2003 & 2004 ($7400)
Sustainable Forest Management Network World Forestry Congress Grant, 2003 ($1500)
Hugh M. Brock Education Abroad Program Scholarship, 2000 ($1200)

Academic Qualifications

Doctor of Philosophy. 2006. University of British Columbia, Department of Forest Resources Management
Dissertation Title: Integrating climate change into forest planning: a spatial and temporal analysis of landscape vulnerability. Advisor: John L. Innes

Bachelor of Science in Forestry with Honours. 2002. Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Department of Forest Resources Management Vancouver

Certificate of Proficiency. 2000. New Zealand School of Forestry, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand

PEER-REVIEWED ARTICLES:

Nitschke, C.R. and J.L. Innes. 2008. A tree and climate assessment tool for modelling ecosystem response to climate change. Ecological Modelling 210 (3): 263-277.

Hickey, G.M., and C.R. Nitschke. 2007. Monitoring sustainable forest management in the Pacific Rim. Journal of Sustainable Forestry 24 (2/3): 245-278.

Nitschke, C.R., and J.L. Innes. 2006. Interactions between fire, climate change and forest biodiversity. Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources 1(60): 1-9.

Nitschke, C.R., 2005. Triad zoning and management on a dynamic landscape: conserving biodiversity and timber supply through holistic analysis and risk spreading. The International Forestry Review 7 (5): 361

Hickey, G.M., and C.R. Nitschke. 2005. Monitoring sustainable forest management in the Pacific Rim. Journal of Sustainable Forest Management. The International Forestry Review 7 (5): 233

Nitschke, C.R., 2005. Does forest harvesting emulate wildfire? A comparison of effects on selected attributes in coniferous-dominated headwater systems. Forest Ecology and Management 214: 305-319.

Hickey, G.M., and C.R. Nitschke. 2005. Crossing disciplinary boundaries in forest research: An international challenge. Forestry Chronicle 81 (3): 321-323

Nitschke, C.R., Hickey, G.M., Mathey, A.H., and Allen, S.D. 2005. Guest Editorial. Forestry Chronicle Special IUFRO World Congress Issue: Crossing Borders: International Perspectives on Interdisciplinary Research. Forestry Chronicle 81 (3): 295-296.

BOOK CHAPTERS:
Hickey, Gordon M., and Craig R. Nitschke. 2007. Monitoring Sustainable Forest Management in the Pacific Rim Region. Pp. 245-278, In: R. L. Deal, R. White, and G. L. Benson (eds.); Sustainable Forestry Management and Wood Production in a Global Economy. Haworth Food & Agricultural Products Press, USA.

Nitschke, C.R., G.M. Hickey and J.L. Innes. 2007. Effectiveness Monitoring of Biodiversity in Dynamic Environments: Is it possible? Pp 33-45, In: J.L. Innes and J.A. Timko (Eds); Proceedings of the Monitoring the Effectiveness of Biological Conservation Conference, 2-4 November, 2004, Richmond B.C. Available at: http://www.forrex.org/events/mebc/papers.html

Nitschke, C.R., and J.L. Innes. 2005. The Application of Forest Zoning as an Alternative to Multiple Use Forestry. Ch 6, In: Innes, J.L., Hickey, G.M. and Hoen, H.F. (Eds.), Forestry and Environmental Change: Socioeconomic and Political Dimensions. CAB International, Oxford.

THESIS AND TECHNICAL REPORTS:

Nitschke, C.R. and R. Astrup. 2008. The vulnerability of the dominant tree species in the Sub-Boreal Spruce Ecosystem of Northwest British Columbia to predicted climate change. Government of British Columbia Forest Sciences Program Technical Report Y081200.

Waeber P. and C.R. Nitschke. 2008. Understanding the influence of climate on the life history of Dothistroma needle blight: climate change and potential outbreak risk. Bulkley Valley Centre for Natural Resources Research and Management Extension Note #7.

Nitschke, C.R. 2006. Integrating Climate Change into Forest Planning: A Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Landscape Vulnerability. PhD dissertation, The University of British Columbia. Vancouver, Canada. 532 pp.

Nitschke, C.R. 2006. Considering climate change in sustainable forest management. Sustainable Forest Management Network Research Note Series No. 19: 1-4.

Nitschke, C.R. 2004. Decision system for implementing sustainable forest management under climate change. Pp. 66, In: APGC 2004 Organising Committees (Eds), The 6th International Symposium on Plant Responses to Air Pollution and Global Changes: Program and Abstracts. Yatabe Printing Co., Ltd., Tsukuba, Japan. 334 pp.

Nitschke, C.R. 2002. Evaluation of a Local Area Agreement for Fish Stream Assessment. B.Sc.F Graduating Essay. Call Number: BSF 2002-NIT. 61 pp.

MEDIA INTERVIEWS/ COMMUNICATION

Australian Broadcasting Corporation National Radio. 2008. Radio Show: “Bush Telegraph”. “How will climate change impact our old forests”; Thursday, February, 21st, 2008. Host: Michael McKenzie.  

Radio Adelaide; “Radio News Interview”, Wednesday, February, 20th, 2008.

Australian Broadcasting Corporation National Radio. 2008. “Country Hour”: Radio Interview; Wednesday, February, 20th, 2008.

The Age. 2008. Tuesday, February 19th, 2008. Melbourne, Vic, Australia. Reporter: Chee Chee Leung.
Science Alert: Australia & New Zealand. 2008. Forest Vulnerable to Climate Change. Tuesday, February 19th, 2008. Reporter: CRC for Forestry.

Link 50 (9): 4-7. 2008. Climate change becomes a priority issue for FIA-FSP funding in 2007-08. FORREX Forest Research Extension Partnership; Reporter: Susan Thorne.

National Post. 2007. Canada’s Money Trees: Experts say it’s time to consider privatizing our forests. Financial Post, September 7, 2007. Reporter: Sean Silcoff.

CBC News Radio. 2007. Climate Change and British Columbia’s Forests. National News at 6 pm, April 6, 2007. Reporter: Greg Rasmussen.

The Vancouver Sun. 2007. Forestry firm hit hard by storms. Business BC Section, April 3, 2007. Reporter: Gordon Hamilton

Presentations